real estate


CNNMONEY.com Reports Decades for Las

Vegas Home prices to Recover

Just released from CNN concerning real estate prices and it’s information that is certainly not new.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Move over, Cleveland. Make room, Detroit. Beat it, Buffalo. There are some competitors for the title of America’s most depressed real estate market.

Read the Full Story Here by Les Christie, 01/07/2011.

When you read the article it makes it sound like Las Vegas is a city with no hope because home values are not going to be returning to their peak anytime soon.

Let’s make it clear… the return to peak home values that we saw in 2006 for Las Vegas happening in a decade or two is Absolutely no surprise but the return to $300,000 starter homes not coming anytime soon has more to do with how Peak Home values were reached in the first place then what the article is suggesting. Think lax lending standards with nothing down for the 2000′s, speculators that wanted to be real estate investors but had no clue what an investment was to begin with and a host of other factors that pushed Las Vegas home values far beyond what they should have been all combining to create a recipe for disaster. Any suggestion that 20%+ appreciation rates year in and year out leading up to the peak as something that is normal is completely ridiculous. Wake up and smell the coffee… the foreclosure fiasco disaster was set in place long before the first seller tried to sell and could not sell to cover the loan balance. Thinking that Las Vegas home values are just going to return to the peak levels anytime soon should have been given up well over a year ago

Back in September of 2009 I covered it a little more extensively and predicted that it would be more like 2040 for Las Vegas home values to return to the levels they were at the peak in 2006.

When Will Las Vegas Home Values Recover?

Read the above and the calculation involved in getting to those peak values. It’s nothing complicated in figuring out.

What is complicated to figure out is where they get these so called expert analysts you read in the mainstream media that come up with ludicrous comparisons that Las Vegas is the Next Detroit or Cleveland. Do they even bother to visit Las Vegas to see what is going on?

By the way Illinois residents… enjoy your income tax hike.  The state was out of control in it’s spending when I lived in Chicago…. where did you think they were going to get the money?

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group, REALTORS
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058

Las Vegas Home Value Stability impossible

to predict until Distressed Homes are gone.

Will Las Vegas home values go up, will they go down? Make sure you read my latest report on Las Vegas valley home values in response to a recently released study that predicts Nevada Home Values to fall another 12% before stabilizing.

The first time homebuyers tax credit is over and has been for several months now. Las Vegas real estate inventory available for sale is going back up and the total amount of inventory currently available on the Las Vegas MLS for Las Vegas, North Las Vegas and Henderson (aka the Las Vegas Valley) is:

  • 15,939 Single Family Homes, Condos, Townhomes and Manufactured Homes
  • 519 High Rise Condominiums. (Condos in buildings over 4 stories high.)

Unfortunately, the timing of the first time homebuyers tax credit was all completely wrong as distressed homes or homeowners owing far more on their mortgage then the home is worth were going through the process of foreclosure. In other words, Las Vegas home values were still in the correction process and working through the system while a program was put in place to entice buyers to catch a thrown knife.

I know plenty of potential home buyers that wanted to buy when the first time homebuyers tax credit was available, but lack of quality inventory of well priced homes prevented them from buying so they gave up after going through the frustration of competing with other buyers and multiple bids on the decent Las Vegas homes that were available.

Sure… plenty of Las Vegas homes were purchased during the available time frame for the $8,000 tax credit, but FAR more could have been purchased if the distressed inventory was allowed to be worked through and put on the market.

Now the tax credit is over (officially over on 04/30/2010 to have a contract of sale)… and the Bank Owned Inventory for Las Vegas available for sale is going back up.

Bank Owned Homes Available for Sale

Notice that in April there were 1,281 Bank owned Single Family Homes, Condos, Townhomes and Manufactured homes available for sale on the Las Vegas MLS.

Today.. there are 3,480 Single Family Homes, Condominiums, Townhomes and Manufactured Homes owned by the bank currently available for sale on the Las Vegas MLS or a 272% increase.

I’m not even going to mention all of the Las Vegas short sales currently available for sale. (Ok.. over 7,700…)

Here is a breakdown of the REO (Real Estate Owned aka Bank Owned Real Estate) currently available for sale in the Las Vegas Multiple Listing Service just covering the Las Vegas Valley. (Las Vegas, Henderson and North Las Vegas.)

  • 2,689 – Single Family Homes
  • 506 – Condominiums in buildings less then 5 stories high.
  • 264 – Townhomes
  • 56 – High Rise Condominiums (Buildings 5 stories plus.)
  • 21 – Manufactured Homes
  • 16 – Multi-Family Properties. (2 units or more.)

Total = 3,552 Bank Owned Properties for Sale on the Las Vegas Multiple Listing Service (MLS).

Obviously when banks do finally put a property up for sale after taking it back, they want it sold. When a homeowner is selling their home and owes far more then what it’s worth (Short Sale)… they want out of that overpriced mortgage and for the most part, will do what it takes to get it sold which often means reducing the price.

Foreclosure moratoriums only delay the inevitable. Eventually a distressed home is going to hit the market and it’s going to get sold one way or another.

So… when is it all going to end to return to a Normal

Real Estate Market in Las Vegas?

Impossible to determine as long as there are a large amount of Las Vegas homeowners out there with mortgages higher then what their Las Vegas homes are worth which is currently estimated at around 80%.

The good news is that the percentage of Las Vegas homes with no mortgage is also growing. Over 40% of the homes purchased in the last year and reported on the Las Vegas MLS have been with CASH.

It’s also fair to say that with home values so low and mortgage interest rates so low, that the homes purchased in the last year where a mortgage was taken out, that the monthly mortgage payment is far lower then the current rents in the immediate area. Sure.. there are probably plenty of them who have already lost equity and now owe more then the home is worth, but the mortgage payment is still probably lower then if they were going to go out and rent the same home down the street.

In other words, the 80% of Las Vegas homeowners owing more then their home is worth is not nearly as important as the number of Las Vegans with a mortgage payment FAR higher then comparable rents.

That’s the REAL number we need to know and I have yet to see any credible reports that have come up with some realistic number.

Are Foreclosure Reports Any Big Deal?

For Las Vegas real estate at this point of time I have to say no. Great for headlines from the national media and all of the foreclosure report services out there trying to make a buck with foreclosure searches (Search Las Vegas Bank Owned Homes for Free right here) but pretty much irrelevant for the Las Vegas home buyer and seller.  The correction is going to take place no matter what program is put in place. Maybe the program will delay the correction, but the correction is going to take place as evidenced by what has and is happening with Las Vegas real estate after all of the programs.

Sure… home values may go down in Las Vegas another 12% or even more but at this stage of the game that Las Vegas is in, does it really mean anything? Read Las Vegas Home Values still going down.. big deal and let me know what you think.

I’d be more worried about the numerous real estate markets out there across the country that have not had a chance to even reach half way through the correction process and it’s still cheaper to rent then buy.

In the new economy… it’s all about the cash flow.

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group, REALTORS
Las Vegas Home Values
702.592.3058

Foreclosure Sales Halted due to Banks Overwhelmed

As mentioned in my last article about GMAC, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America concerning the Foreclosure Mills and Robo-Signers halting foreclosure sales in 23 judicial foreclosure sales and the potential of all Foreclosure sales being temporarily halted, Bank of America has now announced that Foreclosure sales in ALL 50 states are now suspended…

B of A Halts All Foreclosures – WSJ – 10/08/2010 -By Dan Fitzpatrick And Damina Paletta

Bank of America Corp. said it is placing a moratorium on all foreclosure sales across the U.S., amid political pressure on U.S. banks to examine foreclosure-documentation problems.

The nation’s largest bank by assets is the first financial institution to stop all foreclosure sales amid revelations that the banking industry had used “robo signers,” people who sign hundreds of documents a day without reviewing their contents, when foreclosing on homes. Bank of America, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Ally Financial Inc. (parent of GMAC Mortgage) last week postponed foreclosures in 23 states where a court’s approval is required to foreclosure on a home.

Read Full Story Here

Foreclosure Process will Continue

In the article notice that it states that foreclosure proceedings will continue which basically means that while Bank of America will not take possession of homes from homeowners not paying their mortgage, the actual foreclosure process will continue until it is sale time.

Expect shadow inventory to grow even larger. A recent shadow inventory report by Standard & Poor’s estimated that the current Shadow Inventory of homes is already going to take approximately 41 months to clear out with some metro areas such as New York taking as long as 103 months. (The report was made before all of the foreclosure sales were halted.) As long as all of this Shadow Inventory is hanging over the real estate market, any truly sustainable real estate recovery is out of the question.

What is Shadow Inventory?

Depending on who you ask, Shadow Inventory is real estate owned or in the process of being owned by Banks (such as homes in foreclosure) that is not currently available for sale but eventually will be. In the grand equation of  Supply + Demand = Price, Shadow Inventory is that hard to calculate Supply variable. It’s an extremely difficult number to pinpoint but let’s put it this way… if all of the shadow inventory was put up for sale at one time, expect home values to drop like a rock due to supply increasing dramatically.

Pay attention to your neighborhood and how many homes are sitting empty. You know they are bank owned or the homes are in foreclosure yet they are not up for sale. This is Shadow Inventory.

It’s tough to say how long the foreclosure sale moratorium will take place as the Foreclosure Mills get their act together  but keep in mind this has nothing to do with taking back homes from people who are paying their mortgage.  Banks are overwhelmed with foreclosures as it is…. they really do not want any more homes worth far less then the amount owed on them.

All this will probably do is delay foreclosure sales for a couple of months, build up more shadow inventory and extend the pain of the correction even longer.

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group – REALTORS
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058

Foreclosure Mills Temporarily on Hold

First it was GMAC (owned by Ally Financial), then it was JPMorgan Chase & Co and today it is Bank of America announcing the suspension of foreclosures due to documentation problems during the judicial foreclosure process.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Bank of America Suspends Foreclosures – WSJ – Robbie Whelan – 10/01/2010

Bank of America Corp. has suspended all foreclosure proceedings in 23 states starting Friday, the latest bank to stall the process amid documentation problems across the country.

The Charlotte, N.C., lender doesn’t know how many foreclosures this move could affect, a spokesman said. The bank wouldn’t say whether it suspected any errors in its documents.

“The assessment is not yet complete,” the spokesman said via email.

Read Full Story Here

Note… the 23 States are not listed but they are states where foreclosures are handled through the courts, AKA Judicial States. Nevada is primarily a Non-Judicial state. (See Difference at the end of this article.)

Two “Robo Signers” admitted in court of signing off authorizations to foreclose without reviewing loan documents.  One admitted to 10,000 a month and the other admitted to signing off on around 18,000 in one month.

I think it’s safe to say that there is no chance any one person could honestly handle more then 500 loan document reviews a month without cutting corners. Signing Affidavits stating that they were when you did over 10,000 in one month is pretty ludicrous in my opinion and I’m surprised it took this long for somebody to catch on.

Analysts weigh in on GMAC’s Foreclosure Snafu – DSNEWS.com – Carrie Bay 09/28/10

Last week, GMAC Mortgage’s parent company, Ally Financial, called for a halt on residential foreclosures and a suspension of REO sales in 23 judicial states that may have been impacted by what the company said was a glitch in its internal procedures.

Read Full Story Here

Pay particular attention to the Analysts predictions concerning the slow down of the foreclosure process, higher costs involved and REO inventory being delayed from hitting the market. Certainly a VERY good indication that working on beefing up those short sale departments and avoiding foreclosures in the first place is the way to go.

On the flip side, look for tens if not hundreds of thousands of homeowners living in homes for free for a significantly longer amount of time, delaying the inevitable because of a Snafu. An uncontested foreclosure in a judicial state such as Illinois can easily take over 7 months during normal times and these certainly are not normal times.

Once again… this is in Judicial Foreclosure States but non-judicial foreclosure states may take notice.

JPMorgan Suspending Foreclosures – The New York Times – David Streitfeld – 09/29/10

In a sign that the entire foreclosure process is coming under pressure, a second major mortgage lender said that it was suspending court cases against defaulting homeowners so it could review its legal procedures.

Read the Full Story Here

Note the comment from the Florida Real Estate agent at the end of the article who is not paying the mortgage on their rental property.

Now that the lender has withdrawn the affidavit in her case, she was determined to press every advantage.

“I think they should have to answer for this,” she said.

Interesting…

Once again… I want to reiterate that so far these suspensions are in what we call Judicial States where foreclosures are handled in a court of law.

Judicial foreclosures are processed through the courts, beginning with the lender filing a complaint and recording a notice of Lis Pendens. The complaint will state what the debt is, and why the default should allow the lender to foreclose and take the property given as security for the loan.

Non Judicial Foreclosures -

Non-judicial foreclosures are processed without court intervention, with the requirements for the foreclosure established by state statutes. When a loan default occurs, the homeowner will be mailed a default letter, and in many states, a Notice of Default will be recorded at approximately the same time. If the homeowner does not cure the default, a Notice of Sale will be mailed to the homeowner, posted in public places, recorded at the county recorder’s office, and published in area legal publications. After the legally required time period has expired, a public auction will be held, with the highest bidder becoming the owner of the property, subject to their receipt and recordation of the deed. Auctions of non-judicial foreclosures will generally require cash, or cash equivalent either at the sale, or very shortly thereafter.

NEVADA is PRIMARILY a Non Judicial Foreclosure State so Please do not Read this Article and referenced articles thinking that because your Nevada home loan is serviced by GMAC, JPMorganChase or Bank of America that you have nothing to worry about right now and it’s all going to go away like a bad dream.

If you are a Las Vegas area homeowner and have stopped making your mortgage payments and confused on what to do, contact me to see if a Las Vegas short sale is the right alternative for you.

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group – REALTORS
Las Vegas Short Sales
702.592.3058

Ups and Downs in Home Values

An interesting post well worth reading over at Foreclosuretruth.com.  Check this out from “Want to Know when Prices will rise? Ask the Government!

The second thing I noticed about this chart was the dramatic price increase in the 1940’s, and the home price bubbles in the 20’s, 30’s, 70’s and 80’s. While much research has been done on these price increases and bubbles, I began to suspect one simple cause that in hindsight is blatantly obvious… and has nothing to do with irrational behavior on the part of buyers as some have recently concluded.

A brief summary of the Government Programs that were run and you can match up home values going up right after wards with the Case-Shiller 100 Chart that Sean Provides.

That’s right. Every single significant increase in home prices in the last 100 years was immediately preceded by government intervention. The evidence is irrefutable. Every time the government works to make housing more affordable, prices rise.

I found a recently updated one over at Ritholtz.com that was done by a Steve Barry to reflect up to July of 2010 that is below. (Updating the Case Shiller 100 Chart 07/28/2010)

(Click Here on for a Full View)

You can notice the tick up at the end reflecting the first time homebuyers tax credit, loan modifications and everything else to keep home values from returning to where they should be if it was not for the lax lending standards and no money down loans of the early 2000′s.

Here is an article from February of 2009 from BusinessInsider.com that discusses delaying the inevitable.

The Housing Chart That’s Worth 1000 Words

Here’s the big problem with almost all the current rhetoric about the housing crisis: It presumes that the goal should be to get house prices rising again.  The problem with that idea is that, even after a 25% decline, house prices are still way too high.

Even if there is a government mechanism that could stop house prices from plummeting and artificially pump them up again, therefore, it would just postpone the inevitable.

From RealtyCheck September 2010

Bank Repossession of Homes Sets Record in August of 2010

The nation’s banks repossessed a record number of homes in August, according to industry sources. RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure sale site, will release its monthly numbers on Thursday, but sources there confirm the number of repossessions will come in just shy of 100,000 for the month.

That is the highest since the site began tracking in 2005. July’s repossession number was the second highest on record. The last highest was 93,777 in May of 2010.

So here we are today after Billions of Dollars of U.S. Taxpayer Dollars were spent… looking at the chart above and the uptick created from the First Time Home Buyers Tax Credit, did the Government just create another little bubble?

If the latest numbers from Realtytrac are correct in the record number of bank repossessions that just took place, it looks like it…

By the way… here is a chart from Foreclosureradar.com showing the number of Bank Repossessions in Clark County, Nevada.

It’s no new news that Clark County, Nevada has had the highest number of Bank Repossessions per capita in the country for quite some time and home values have already been decimated… resulting in a 16% decrease compared to August of 2009.

Primarily due to the fact that prices in Las Vegas were already in the process of correcting long before HAMP, First Time Home buyer tax credits and any other program you can think of….

Are Home Values in the Rest of the Country going to catch up to Las Vegas?

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group – REALTORS
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058

Simple and Easy to Understand

Documentary

Overdose… the new documentary posted that is making waves across the World on the Bubbles that have been created in the United States for the past decade.

Summary: Tech Bubble busts. 09/11/01 hits.  U.S. Economy is in shambles and going down. Housing Programs, low interest rates and tax cuts for capital gains to spur investment are put in place in 2002.  Economy starts to roll again and gets back on it’s feet. Unfortunately, instead of weening the economy off of these programs for a transition… new programs are rolled out to keep it going even more.

Housing Prices skyrocket… Americans are debted to death to a point no longer sustainable. Housing prices collapse as the get into debt over your head kicks in. Government comes back in with more programs to transfer all of the private debt from financial institutions that took too much of a risk for profits today to public debt. CEO’s of these same corporations retire to make the people featured on Robin Leach’s Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous envious.

Government debt is skyrocketing… what’s next?

Here is a great video that was just released….

Paul Francis, REALTOR
Prudential Americana Group, REALTORS
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058

Interesting story in today’s Wall St. Journal forwarded to me by a client:

Las Vegas Home Bargains Drying Up

As with many revelations by clients thinking it’s easy to buy something in Las Vegas with all of the dread reported in the media… reality is soon realized after looking at several Las Vegas homes and being out bid over and over.

But what really caught my eye in this article is something I brought up in a post not too long ago about the “outrage” by local government officials when Las Vegas was snubbed on receiving money under the $6 Billion Neighborhood Stabilization Program. 

From the Wall Street Journal Article:

Also competing with the investors is Mr. Pawlak, head of community-resources management for Clark County, which includes Las Vegas. Mr. Pawlak leads a team charged with spending about $30 million of state and federal money awarded to the county to purchase foreclosed homes.

The federal money comes from the $6 billion Neighborhood Stabilization Program created by Congress in 2008. That program is supposed to help local organizations buy and repair foreclosed homes so they don’t drag down neighborhoods. Those organizations then sell or rent the homes to people with low or moderate incomes.

Given strong demand from private buyers, why should the county be in the market at all? Mr. Pawlak says his program tries to ensure homes are occupied by stable owners or renters. Investors, he says, won’t necessarily repair homes thoroughly and find long-term occupants with a stake in the neighborhood.

Certainly interesting and I want to point out… they are not just competing with investors but also the many first time homebuyers out there completely frustrated with how hard it is to purchase something in Las Vegas for under $150,000.  (And trust me… their real estate agents are frustrated also.)

As for the statement of ensuring homes are occupied by stable renters that will be long term occupants with a stake in the neighborhood:  Is there a formula to determine this that private investors do not know?

For the Las Vegas Real Estate market.. the demand is nothing new and has been going on for quite some time as evidenced by this article in the Las Vegas Sun back in September of 2009. (If it’s in the main stream news.. then it’s been going on for quite some time.)

So.. you really have to ask questions.

Is a Government Agency / program going to do more for neighborhood stabilization buying homes and leasing them back out then the private market?

Is a Government Agency going to be more efficient in rehabbing homes with “approved contractors” then the private sector who will use the most efficient contractors? (I know a couple of Private companies that specialize in this and I highly doubt that anybody is going to do a better job then them.)

Is $30 Million dollars competing for homes in a market dwindling with supply creating higher home prices for first time home buyers?

Does this program really help current homeowners whose home values have lost so much in equity?

By the way.. this is not the only Government Agency Private Las Vegas home buyers are competing against:

Ex Fannie Mae Executive on Fannie Mae Becoming Landlords

“Another Long Line of Policy Initiatives Just Kicking the Can Down the Road”

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group – Realtors®
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058

TARP Quarterly Report to

Congress Released

Some interesting criticism of the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) leveled by the top independed inspector TARP Cop in it’s quarterly update to Congress. You can follow these quarterly reports by going to this Page.

From the Executive Summary of the Latest Report:

Well into its second year of operations, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (“TARP”) remains a vitally important part of the Federal Government’s response to the economic crisis, and the formal extension of TARP by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Treasury (“Treasury”) on December 9, 2009, makes it clear that this role will continue well into 2010. The focus of TARP has begun to shift, however, as the early TARP programs that invested huge sums in banks are now closed to further investments and most of the largest bank recipients have repaid their TARP funds. Treasury has stated that, going forward, TARP will focus on foreclosure mitigation efforts, small-business lending, and a continuation of support for the asset-backed securities (“ABS”) markets.

Actual Lending is still Decreasing:

Many of TARP’s stated goals, however, have simply not been met. Despite the fact that the explicit goal of the Capital Purchase Program (“CPP”) was to increase financing to U.S. businesses and consumers, lending continues to decrease month after month, and the TARP program designed specifically to address small-business lending — announced in March 2009 — has still not been implemented by Treasury. Notwithstanding the fact that preserving homeownership and promoting jobs were explicit purposes of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 “EESA”), the statute that created TARP, nearly 16 months later, home foreclosures remain at record levels, the TARP foreclosure prevention program has only permanently modified a small fraction of eligible mortgages, and unemployment is the highest it has been in a generation.

Institutions “Too Big to Fail” have become bigger:

To the extent that huge, interconnected, “too big to fail” institutions contributed to the crisis, those institutions are now even larger, in part because of the substantial subsidies provided by TARP and other bailout programs.

Sounds like if they have to be bailed out again… it’s going to cost a lot more. And allowing them to fail… is going to hurt a whole lot more.

Rewarding Reckless Risks:

To the extent that institutions were previously incentivized to take reckless risks through a “heads, I win; tails, the Government will bail me out” mentality, the market is more convinced than ever that the Government will step in as necessary to save systemically significant institutions. This perception was reinforced when TARP was extended until October 3, 2010, thus permitting Treasury to maintain a war chest of potential rescue funding at the same time that banks that have shown questionable ability to return to profitability (and in some cases are posting multi-billion-dollar losses) are exiting TARP programs.

Big Banks Report Fourth Quarter Losses due to Credit Problems

Transfer of Risk:

To the extent that the crisis was fueled by a “bubble” in the housing market, the Federal Government’s concerted efforts to support home prices — as discussed more fully in Section 3 of this report — risk re-inflating that bubble in light of the Government’s effective takeover of the housing market through purchases and guarantees, either direct or implicit, of nearly all of the residential mortgage market.

The 224 page Congressional Oversight report is quite extensive but it gives a good look behind the scenes of what is really going on and the complexities involved of trying to correct a major bubble.

A recent article by The Motley Fuel gives a nice summary of the current relationship between the Government and your new home loan — especially in explaining why big banks are not lending their own money on Residential Lending. Home Loans that you would think are slam dunk common sense no brainers such as putting 50% down on a home that has decreased in value 50% from the peak … are still subject to government guidelines.

Government insuring 90% of current Residential Mortgages

The market share of current mortgage issuance is even more lopsided. Fannie and Freddie combined currently make up about 70% of new mortgage issuance, with the FHA taking up close to 20%, for a total of around 90% reliance on these three government-backed vehicles.

If private banks were the only issuers of mortgage funding, the cost (interest rate) would blow up in a big way. To compensate, housing prices would get nuked. For example, a 30-year fixed mortgage at 5% with a $1,500 monthly payment will finance around $275,000 worth of house. The same $1,500 mortgage at 9% will only finance about $185,000.

(By the way… that’s why you should laugh at sales campaigns that state you need to buy now before interest rates go up.)

The Motley Fool article also gives a real simple and easy to understand explanation of why those “Greedy Big Banks” are not lending their own money.

Why such reliance? The best explanation is that large banks — like Citigroup (NYSE: C), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) — don’t have the appetite to lend directly to homeowners after being sufficiently wrecked by housing over the past three years. Also, with the yield curve the way it is, it makes sense for banks with a long-term outlook (I’d like to believe they exist) to invest in short-term Treasury securities instead of longer-term assets like mortgages. Wells Fargo recently admitted it’s doing just that.

President Obama in his recent State of the Union Address stated that the worst of the crisis was behind us… but you really have to wonder if the problems were just transferred to a bigger credit card. Kind of like playing the Credit Card trap of transferring all of the balances from small cards to one big new shiny one. Feels good for a little while… but if basic financial fundamentals are flawed (such as spending more then you make), the inevitable is still going to happen.

Despite all of the efforts and Billions of dollars already spent trying to “save” the “market”, Defaults on the National Level are Not going down… In fact.. Defaults on Government Insured Mortgages are going up according to this latest report from Fannie Mae that you can read here.

In a recent article concerning Las Vegas Real Estate being undervalued by 41% by some leading forecasting companies, there is something in that report that really makes me wonder. I’ve been meaning to follow up with this concerning median home prices of the areas considered “OverValued” in that report and comparing these markets to housing markets such as Las Vegas that have already been decimated in value from the peak of the bubble.

When you start comparing some of these markets that were not allowed to naturally correct before all of the Government subsidies kicked in.. you really have to wonder how long it’s going to take for homeowners in these areas to realize how much cheaper it is to own a home in cities such as Las Vegas… and for those that can… make the move.

(Actually.. I already see it happening with the amount of requests coming in for Las Vegas Real Estate from people who state they are going to eventually make the move.)

Essentially, creating less demand in those areas and prices falling — continuing the cycle of a natural market correction that is inevitable when the economic factor (Jobs, Incomes, etc..) is considered.

Bailouts can’t be relied on forever.. and as the Top Tarp Cop states in the Executive Summary:

Stated another way, even if  TARP saved our financial system from driving off a cliff back in 2008, absent meaningful reform, we are still driving on the same winding mountain road, but this time in a faster car.

That certainly does not sound like it’s going to get any easier to get a home loan anytime soon to me..

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group – Realtors®
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058

 

Latest Article on Real Estate

Values from CNNMoney ranks

Las Vegas as most Undervalued

in Nation

From first to worst to first… Las Vegas always seems to be Number 1 at something. This time… it’s the most undervalued real estate according to the newly released 2010 report compiled by IHS Global Insight and PNC Financial Services that you can read by clicking on the following link:

America’s Most Overvalued Cities

“These judgments are determined by comparing median home prices, local interest rates, population densities and income, plus historical premiums or discounts that areas have exhibited over time.”

Shhh…. Don’t tell anybody… Serious Real Estate Investors have known this for the past several months. Let’s keep the imitators away this time so we don’t repeat previous mistakes.

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group – Realtors
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058

Does Anybody in the United

States NOT know that Las Vegas

is one of the Foreclosure Capitals

of the World?

From Channel 8 News:

LAS VEGAS – Nevada leads the way when it comes to foreclosures. But while the northern part of the state got close to $21 million in federal money aimed to help struggling communities, Southern Nevada got nothing.

The program is called the Neighborhood Stabilization Program. The money would ultimately be used to buy foreclosed homes to be resold or rented out to income-eligible families.

From the Las Vegas Sun:

Mayor Angry, Reid Disappointed Las Vegas Denied More Federal Aid for Foreclosures

Rather than help people who were in danger of foreclosure, the money was given to the city to help purchase the homes that were already in foreclosure so they wouldn’t become blighted and allow the city to provide affordable housing, he said.

Some 6,500 homes are going to hit the market in the Las Vegas Valley “and we can’t afford to buy any of them because we don’t have this money,” he said, slamming the grant list down on the podium.

Visit Las Vegas... A city not wasting your Federal Tax Dollars..

The real story here is not how somebody did not know what they were doing when applying for the Federal Money under the new “Neighborhood Stabilization” program and Southern Nevada getting zilch in the current round of payoffs .. its a question of common sense, what the actual program really is, and who authorizes payments in the first place.

Really now… does anybody not know that Las Vegas has had a pretty significant foreclosure problem for the past several years? Is somebody that much out of touch with what is going on?

From the News Story:

Those working on the deal in Southern Nevada now believe they asked for too much money — $368 million.

“$368 million is a lot of money, but when you look at the direct impact of foreclosures for City of Las Vegas alone, 20,000 to 25,000 foreclosures a month, that hardly makes a dent to the foreclosures,” said Steve Harsin with the Neighborhood Services Department.

Officials now say they may have been too ambitious and asked for too much money. The funds from the first round of distributions were supposed to go through non-profits selected for the job, but many admit it’s been a bit of a struggle rolling out the program in Las Vegas and they’re trying to learn from the successes of others areas.

What is the Neighborhood Stabilization Program?

Let’s go straight to the source — Neighborhood Stabilization Grants

The Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) was established for the purpose of stabilizing communities that have suffered from foreclosures and abandonment. Through the purchase and redevelopment of foreclosed and abandoned homes and residential properties, the goal of the program is being realized.

The Nature of the Program:

NSP is a component of the Community Development Block Grant (CDBG). The CDBG regulatory structure is the platform used to implement NSP and the HOME program provides a safe harbor for NSP affordability requirements.

NSP grantees develop their own programs and funding priorities. However, NSP grantees must use at least 25 percent of the funds appropriated for the purchase and redevelopment of abandoned or foreclosed homes or residential properties that will be used to house individuals or families whose incomes do not exceed 50 percent of the area median income. In addition, all activities funded by NSP must benefit low- and moderate-income persons whose income does not exceed 120 percent of area median income. Activities may not qualify under NSP using the “prevent or eliminate slums and blight” or “address urgent community development needs” objectives.

This is for the reader to decipher and form your own opinion of what it means.

And hey… if you have more questions.. feel free to read the 57 page Q&A section here. Once again… another relief program spelled B-u-r-e-a-c-r-a-c-y.

Back to the Original Article from Channel 8 News:

 ”Basically, the non-profits are fairly young here. They’re not used to being involved with government, as far as spending the money. That was one of the criticisms leveled at us by the undersecretary,” said Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman.

There may be some reorganization in Southern Nevada to improve and learn from past mistakes. There will be another round of funding coming soon.

Sorry Las Vegas and Southern Nevada… but you don’t know how to spend $368 Million dollars like we do in Washington D.C… Lots of Laughing here. I think that’s more of a compliment then criticism.

On the surface it seems to be unfortunate that there is a money grab going on out there and Southern Nevada / Las Vegas is not getting their fair share. There is truly no Doubt that if Federal Taxpayer Dollars are going to be used to “stabilizing communities that have suffered from foreclosures and abandonment” that Las Vegas / Southern Nevada should receive something… even if the people responsible for filling out tons of paperwork asked for too much or don’t know how to spend it like the government. It’s just a matter of common sense.

Who Really Benefits from the Program?

We really have to dig below the surface and think of who this program REALLY benefits. Las Vegas homes (or anywhere for that matter) that have been foreclosed on are pretty much owned by the Banks. What that sales price will be will probably fall along the lines of “Spending Money Like the Government” instead of being determined by natural market forces set by the private sector.

So, here we have a program using Federal Taxpayer Dollars to buy homes from the Banks and relieve their responsibilities of upkeep, paying property taxes, HOA dues, etc, etc… and putting the burden on the Government. (If I have to explain where the Government gets its money, then please use your computer to learn something today.) 

Just ask some of the thousands of the active buyers for Las Vegas real estate out there what they think about the Government buying homes after they’ve lost out on trying to buy a Bank Owned home a couple of times. Ask private real estate investors what they think about competing with the Government for tenants. Ask potential renters that will not qualify under the program what they think about paying more for rent due to subsidized programs.

And then ask yourself if the people making the actual award decisions have enough common sense to get into the complicated world of real estate and manage taxpayer dollars effectively? (Well… actually, it’s borrowed money at this point but taxpayers will eventually get stuck with the bill.)

Could the Real Story be in the Grant List? Just to share some of the lucky Winners in the $1,930,000,000 lottery.

$11,000,000 to Alameda County. $299,000 is the cheapest house I could find in Alameda for sale. If there was no demand, I would think that prices would be lower.

$22,249,980 – (Bizarre Number) to Long Beach, California. The cheapest home I could find on this Long Beach Real Estate Search was $250,000.

$100,000,000 to Los Angeles. No Comment.

$23,000,000 to the City of Sarasota. LOTS of LAUGHING Here when you search for Sarasota Real Estate for sale.

$18,150,000 to Evanston, IL. - Do a search for homes here. Evanston is in the North Shore where you can find some of the priciest homes in Chicagoland. If you’ve lived in Chicago, it really makes for a good laugh.

I could take this a step further… but I’m not and end it here. People who can think for themselves have a good understanding of what it all really means.

The Blight of Foreclosures Issue

Which brings us back to the “Blight” issue. Instead of Pandering for Federal Taxpayer dollars in programs being run where there are plenty of questions that can be raised concerning the effective management of these dollars, perhaps City and County Officials should be thinking more like the City of Indio when they took the bull by the horns.

City of Indio Fines Banks for Blighted Foreclosures

There are Homeowner Associations across Las Vegas that have gotten pretty aggressive in policing their own neighborhoods. I know from the several short sales that I have listed that some of the better managed HOA’s that actually do something for paying into them have taken a proactive approach to the problem and fining anybody that owns a home that appears to be blighted. There is a reason why there is a big set of Community Covenants & Rules (CC&R’s) provided to new homeowners in such a type of community and it’s not so the Management Company can collect fees for making copies.

As far as actual management of Bank Owned Homes… There are some Asset Management companies and REO Listing Agents representing some certain banks that do an absolutely wonderful job of maintaining the upkeep on their properties. And… there are some that should not be managing or listing homes for anybody in the first place.

Regardless… there is nothing stopping the City of Las Vegas or Clark County from establishing a simple set of standards to prevent blight… and to fine and penalize those that don’t want to follow it. Truly abandoned homes? There is a procedure for a local government to legally take ownership to these homes. Keep in mind… I’m specifically talking about true abandonment and not homeowner neglect. Big Difference.

Some 6,500 homes are going to hit the market in the Las Vegas Valley “and we can’t afford to buy any of them because we don’t have this money,” he said, slamming the grant list down on the podium.

Is this Program really just about blighted homes or is there more to the real intention of the program? Should Federal Taxpayer Dollars be used by who knows who to purchase private real estate owned by banks? Should Las Vegas take it as a compliment that they don’t know how to spend money like the Federal Government?

There are some Clever minds creating very entertaining commercials for Las Vegas… Somewhere in all of this, I think there is an idea in here for a new one.

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group – Realtors®
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058

* Paul Francis is an Independent Contractor specializing in Common Sense Las Vegas Real estate. Opinions formed in this post are his opinions and may not reflect the opinion of Prudential Americana Group – Realtors® or Prudential Real Estate Affiliates, Inc.

Prudential Americana Group – Realtors® is An independently owned and operated member of The Prudential Real Estate Affiliates, Inc. Prudential is a registered trademark of The Prudential Insurance Company of America. Used under license. Equal Housing Opportunity.   

Will New National Testing

Clean up the Lending Industry?

“Must be Pre-Approved with such and such Lender… “

Anybody going through the frustrations of attempting to purchase a Bank Owned Home in Las Vegas certainly knows all about this requirement.  A recent call from a prospective buyer frustrated with trying to buy a home in Las Vegas had three pre-approvals from different lenders… an obvious sign to me that they had unsuccessfully been chasing bank owned homes.

While the process of getting pre-approved with the REO Agents desired lender is certainly a nuance to me since I have my favorite long time loan officer who works for a local mortgage company and does what they say they are going to do, I certainly can understand the requirement since I’ve run into my share of less than knowledgable loan officers that will say anything just to lock up a potential loan.

So, this article from the New York Times highlighting the failure rates of the new federally mandated licensing exams certainly was no surprise to me:

31% of loan officers failing basic fundamentals test

Prospective licensees in 11 states began taking the exams on July 30, followed in late October by those in six more states and Washington. On Dec. 10, New York and New Jersey started offering the tests, which feature roughly 100 questions in the national version and about 50 for the state version.

The exam administered by the Conference of State Banking Supervisors varies from state to state and covers basic principles of the lending process including federal laws, general mortgage knowledge, the loan-origination process and ethics. Loan officers working for conventional banks do not need to take the test.

Licensing Requirements for Nevada

Read More at my Las Vegas Real Estate Website…

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group – Realtors®
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058

Goldman Sachs HeadquartersPart 1 of a five-month McClatchy Newspapers investigation is certainly the must read Real Estate related article of the day/week.

How Goldman Sachs Secretly Bet on the Housing Crash

In 2006 and 2007, Goldman Sachs Group peddled more than $40 billion in securities backed by at least 200,000 risky home mortgages, but never told the buyers it was secretly betting that a sharp drop in U.S. housing prices would send the value of those securities plummeting.

Goldman’s sales and its clandestine wagers, completed at the brink of the housing market meltdown, enabled the nation’s premier investment bank to pass most of its potential losses to others before a flood of mortgage defaults staggered the U.S. and global economies.

Only later did investors discover that what Goldman had promoted as triple-A rated investments were closer to junk.

Part Two - Go After Homeowners to Collect

Since the economic collapse that swept millions of Americans out of their jobs and homes, Goldman Sachs has moved aggressively to recover losses. The firm is pursuing shaky borrowers into federal bankruptcy and state courts across the country and seeking to seize their homes. McClatchy examines one family’s multi-year attempt to get Goldman Sachs to admit that it had purchased their mortgages.

Certainly something very interesting is the amount of the claim that Goldman Sachs was going after:

In July, after U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Roger Efremsky of the Northern District of California threatened to impose “significant sanctions” if the firm failed to complete a promised settlement with the Beckers, Goldman dropped its claims for $626,000, far more than the couple’s original $356,000 in mortgages and $70,000 in missed payments. The firm gave the Beckers a new, 30-year mortgage at 5 percent interest.

Is my math a little off or was Goldman Sachs really adding another $200,000 in that claim?

Part Three – Secret offshore Meetings

Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street firms turned to secret Cayman Islands deals to draw overseas investors, including European banks and other foreign financial institutions, to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in securities tied to risky U.S. home loans. Unlike U.S. investors that lost money on the securities, however, these overseas institutions have fewer legal options.

Part Four – Associations with some

of the Biggest Junk Loan Originators

Goldman Sachs was among the last Wall Street giants to enter the lucrative world of subprime mortgages, but it didn’t take long before the elite investment house was cutting deals with high-flying firms whose lax standards would prove to be disastrous. Perhaps no lender was more emblematic of the subprime mortgage industry’s spectacular rise and fall than California’s New Century Financial.

Make sure you take a look at the pictures on the left hand side of the story with the classic captions such as:

Californians Irma Aninger and Melissa Toy, among risk analysts hired to review subprime mortgages before Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street firms bought them, said their supervisors routinely overrode their challenges to loans. Toy said she concluded that the reviews were mostly “for appearances,” because the Wall Street firms planned to repackage “bogus” loans swiftly and sell them as bonds, passing any future liabilities to the buyers. “There was nobody involved in this who didn’t know what was going on, no matter what they say,” she said. “We all knew.”

And…

“I don’t even know why I was there,” Aninger said, “because the stuff was gonna get pushed through anyway.”

Certainly interesting…. Contribute to home prices going up by providing junk loan originators with lax lending standards billions of dollars and then sell off the securities while betting on home values crashing.

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group – Realtors®
Las Vegas Real Estate – Summerlin Homes
702.592.3058

Spooky Real Estate Predictions

www.lasvegasrealestatehome.com doomsday real estate predictions

Doomsday Real Estate

There is no shortage of national media data crunchers giving bad news about Las Vegas Real Estate. The problem is… they don’t actually practice real estate and they seem to interview agents that really are not involved in day to day Las Vegas real estate in the form of representing buyers and real sellers.

Take a Look at the Las Vegas Bank Owned Properties for Sale compared to January of 2009.

www.lasvegasrealestatehome.com - Notice of Trustees Sale Clark County NV through July

Notice of Trustees Sales in Clark County, NV through July of 2009

Quite a significant decrease in inventory despite all of the reports of how Nevada leads the country in foreclosures. We probably also lead the country in the amount of offers that come in on a Bank Owned home for sale. I’m certainly not going to venture out and say the foreclosure crisis is behind us because I’m still trying to figure out where all of those foreclosures that were supposed to be on the way in the form of bank owned homes for sale went. Remember this Post about the Number of Trustee’s Sales filed in Clark County, Nevada through July?

The Notice of Trustee Sale is the next to final step in the lender actually taking the home back. Generally… the homeowner has 30 days of ownership left before the lender officially owns the home so you would think with the huge numbers filed in June and July… that they would have hit the market by now.

But… for those of us with Real Estate Investors patiently waiting for a bunch of good deals to come up on the Las Vegas REO market… it’s just not materializing. When we do find something worth purchasing… chances are there are going to be multiple offers on the property and more likely than not… it’s going to sell for more than the list price that attracted us to it in the first place.

There are certainly plenty of theories out there of what is taking place (and I certainly agree with some of them) but nobody has been able to provide substantial proof of where the Disappearing Las Vegas Bank Owned Homes for sale went.

Do Spooky Predictions Matter with current

Las Vegas Home Values?

I came across this post over at Dr. Housing Bubble concerning the nasty Option Arms coming up to reset in the next couple of years. There has been quite a bit of speculation on what this is going to do to further decrease home values but when you look at the % numbers of where the majority of these types of loans exist… it’s primarily in Southern California. According to the pie chart below… only 3% of these types of loans exist in Nevada.

options-arms-by-state

3% of Option Arm Loans are in Nevada

However… you certainly need to respect the fact that the Las Vegas economy is certainly dependent on the Southern California economy. So the big question is… what effect will this have on the Southern California market? From what I hear.. they have a shortage of homes priced right also.

Something else very interesting that popped up in the Dr. Housing Bubble blog post:

And for those looking at the Case-Shiller or other data showing a minor move up in price, remember that prices are still dropping but the way the data is calculated, it does show minor moves up because of the shift in market sales.  Lower priced homes, that subprime and foreclosure wave, made up a bulk of sales for the past year.  Now, we are seeing more expensive homes sell but for cheaper prices thus the mix is moving up.

Keep that in mind when you see marketing reports released by the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors®. I primarily specialize in areas of Las Vegas where the average prices are over $200,000 and there has certainly been an increase in sales activity from what I see… which raises the median home prices of all sales.

So.. Do the Spooky Predictions Really Matter for Las Vegas Real Estate?

Very tough to say. Las Vegas real estate prices have already been decimated in value and all of the current programs in place (that have to eventually end) are benefitting (artificially propping up values) other areas of the United States… for right now. Our prices are already decimated and throw in the low tax environment (while other states/cities are raising taxes), and I see no shortage in the interest of people wanting to relocate to Las Vegas.

Case in point… the newest offer I wrote for a Lady who just sold her $460,000 condo with a $600 a month association fee in Hawaii to buy something three times the size in Las Vegas for $340,000. Oh.. it’s also 15 years newer and the association fee is $520 cheaper a month. She’s one of the lucky ones that gets to travel all of the time and the convenience of all the flights coming in and out of Las Vegas is certainly more convenient for her to set up home base in Las Vegas. (From what I remember… the buyers of her Condo are taking advantage of the $8,000 tax credit. See a relationship here?)

The big unknown is what happens if and when all of the subsidies disappear? $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit expiring, extending, expanding… whatever. Primarily a so called need fueled by special interest groups and since over 70% of all transactions for Las Vegas have been bank owned properties Year to Date… you have to wonder who is really benefitting. (I don’t think all of these cash buyers for Las Vegas Bank Owned Homes need or are buying because of the $8,000 tax credit.)

Would if the Bank Owned Homes Magically Re-Appear for Sale in Las Vegas?

Las Vegas Real Estate Predictions of the Unknown may not be so scary after all.

Not so Scary after all

Just ask all of the Las Vegas Real Estate agents representing buyers trying to buy one. I have not come across one Las Vegas Realtor® in the past several months complaining about the inventory surplus. If anything… I’m hearing nothing but complaints about the lack of quality inventory available.

Las Vegas real estate prices have attracted people from all over the world. Despite some of the recent negative news concerning the Las Vegas economy and predictions by some economy experts (where were you three years ago? -or – old news) concerning inventory… the reality is that if it’s priced right… there is ABSOLUTELY no shortage of interest. Key words.. priced right.

High Prices created from cheap and easy credit, increased inventory from overbuilding and a return to traditional loan products are what eventually killed Las Vegas real estate values.

It was unsustainable and Las Vegas Real estate prices were starting to drop long before the unemployment came. Just think about all of the jobs created during all of that building and that helps explain why the unemployment rate in Las Vegas is so high. You can’t have explosive growth forever… it’s never happened in the entire history of the world for any city and Las Vegas is no exception.

Wells predicts the housing market will suffer through what he calls the “W” effect with prices going up, down and back up again. The concern is what happens with the Federal Reserve and need to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control. That will keep a lot of buyers from the market, he said.

A “W” shaped Recovery (or W effect… LOL!) is certainly something to be leary of with all of the unsustainable Government subsidies in place such as the $8,000 first time homebuyers tax credit and purchasing of mortgage backed securities to artificially lower interest rates. Yes.. the Federal Reserve will need to eventually raise interest rates to take back in all of that printed / borrowed money being used to pump up the economy back  to the la-la land years but you really have to wonder who that is going to hurt the most when it does happen.

Wells said that homebuilders can’t compete with existing homes selling for $70 a square foot and that the lack of job growth will hinder that recovery going forward.

I’ll refrain from posting all of the news reports from 2004 of developers paying obscene amounts for BLM land for now. Besides that, My area of specialty is averaging over $100 a square foot which says something about carefully planned development anyways. As for Commercial real estate.. just hop on down to Town Square and see what kind of business a well planned development does. In other words… just another strip mall going down in flames is more of a casualty from lack of creativity and high development costs based on unsustainable numbers to begin with.

Federal Spendulous Funds

Nevada has actually received a very small share of the pump it up money so when it ends… it’s going to hurt the big beneficiaries such as California more. (Do they slash their spending or raise their taxes?) Las Vegas casinos did not get bailed out and they are still open so that should be a positive sign.

Confused Yet?

Great Magic Tricks

Making Homes Disappear is a Great Magic Trick

Good… so is everybody else who has a clue of what is currently taking place and trying to make future real estate predictions with the consideration of the magically disappearing Las Vegas bank owned homes for sale.

Regardless, The reality is that current Las Vegas home values are very affordable considering what Las Vegas has to offer and further price declines from this point are not going to BK any current buyers unless they were heading down that road anyways. (A 10% decline of today’s current median price is certainly much different then a 10% decline from the 2006 median price.)

Las Vegas real estate was certainly a much spookier concept in 2006 then it is today if you look at things the right way. I’m pretty certain that it’s much cheaper to Live in Las Vegas then Honolulu, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, New York, Washington D.C. and several other cities and at a time when you have millions of baby boomers retiring… Las Vegas is certainly in a position to capitalize if we can just forget about the la-la years and focus on a new destination.

Happy Nevada Day and Happy Halloween. Be Safe at all of the Great Halloween Parties taking place in Las Vegas.

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group – Realtors®
Las Vegas Real Estate – Summerlin Homes
702.592.3058

Did Countrywide’s VIP Program

Influence Lawmakers?

More to come on this as a House Oversight Committee has issued Subpoenas into Countrywide’s (Now owned by Bank of America) VIP “Friends of Angelo” program.

Despite multiple warnings that the Housing Market was overheating, influential lawmakers insisted that there were no problems brewing. Meanwhile, Countrywide was serving up exotic loans and pawning them off to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. My experience with dealing with these types of Las Vegas short sales has certainly been interesting to say the least.

Related Reading:

Congress looks to bail out Countrywide 06/18/2008

Campaigning in Lancaster, Pa., on March 31, Sen. Barack Obama blamed Countrywide’s CEO for “infecting the economy and helping to create a home foreclosure crisis.” Yet Rep. Barney Frank (D., Mass.) and Mr. Dodd have crafted a bill to provide $300 billion in new taxpayer loan guarantees to Countrywide and others. The bill will allow troubled financial institutions to foist the riskiest mortgages in their portfolios onto the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) — ultimately putting the American taxpayer on the hook for their bad bets.

Senator Chris Dodd and Countrwide 10/10/2008

Former Countrywide Financial loan officer Robert Feinberg says Mr. Dodd knowingly saved thousands of dollars on his refinancing of two properties in 2003 as part of a special program the California mortgage company had for the influential. He also says he has internal company documents that prove Mr. Dodd knew he was getting preferential treatment as a friend of Angelo Mozilo, Countrywide’s then-CEO.

Countrywide has Friends in High Places 06/12/2008

Besides the discounted interest rates reported by the Journal, Countrywide also waived points for Johnson, a former chief executive of government-sponsored mortgage reseller Fannie Mae. In 2003, Countrywide took 1.375 points, about $13,000, off a nearly $1 million loan to refinance Johnson’s Washington home. When he borrowed almost $1.3 million in 2003 that same year to refinance a 4,400-square-foot, Southwestern-style home with four bedrooms and five baths beside the second green of a golf course in Palm Desert, California, Countrywide waived 1.875 points, or about $24,000.

In 2004, Johnson borrowed $3 million to upgrade to a larger estate—a 5,875-square-foot house, with a guesthouse and pool—on the same course. Although the size of the loan exceeded Countrywide’s limit for a second home, Mozilo told an employee to “do the deal.”

Sweetheart Deals from Countrywide 07/27/08

Feinberg also told House investigators that Countrywide counted both of Dodd’s’ homes as primary residences.

“He was allowed to do both of those as owner-occupied, which is not allowed. You can only have one owner-occupied property. You can’t live in two properties at the same time,” he said.

There is certainly an easy argument to be made that the Sub-Prime lending behavior of companies such as Countrywide contributed to high home values due to lax lending standards…. eventually costing Homeowners across the country dearly.

While much of the damage has already been done… we still get to deal with the wave of Option Arms due to reset in the next year or two. Hopefully… buyer’s interest in cheap Las Vegas Real Estate will remain strong to help suck up the coming foreclosure inventory that will be on the way.

Will the subpoenas produce anything we don’t already know?

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group – Realtors
Las Vegas Real Estate – Summerlin Homes
702.592.3058

Oversight Panel for Tarp

Releases Report / Highlights

Future Challenges for Housing

Administration Criticized for Loan Modifications

The full Report with loads of information concerning foreclosures is available by reading the link below:

Congressional Oversight Report on Foreclosures

Foreclosures Accelerating in Activity

Foreclosures Accelerating in Activity

Very interesting charts on page 9. Page 10 starts with the different waves of foreclosures and then finishes up with the next potential wave of foreclosures in the form of Option Arms, Negative Equity and Unemployment.

A Chart on negative equity by state can be found on Page 16. Nevada leads the way with over 50% of the homes estimated to be worth less then what is owed on the home.

Redefault Rates Loan Modifications

Of particular interest was a chart on page 63 that gives the statistics of home loans that have been modified and their re-default rates.

Is Money Being Wasted on Loan Modifications

Is Money Being Wasted on Loan Modifications?

Statistical numbers right now don’t look too good for loan modifications. I don’t know how well they are working out because when home sellers come to me… they already tried a loan modification and were denied and then we do the short sale.

However.. the comment on page 73 of the report concerning JP Morgan Chase just reducing interest to a really low level and keeping the principle the same coincides with some of the loan modifications that I’ve come across that were simply smoke and mirror programs. (Reduced payments with negative amortization, temporary reduced payments, etc..) For the non savvy consumer, they may not realize that they are delaying the inevitable when you consider reports such as the one I highlighted concerning When Home Values will Return in Las Vegas done by Moody’s.

And… I’ve also come across potential short sale sellers who have no intention of keeping their home after the loan modification ends. The only reason why they are sticking with it is because it’s currently cheaper than rent but when their temporary reduced payments end (all the meanwhile the principle of what they owe is growing) they have every intention of doing a short sale or walking away if that does not work.

Is the Inevitable being delayed?

Looking over this report, you have to wonder if the billions of dollars being used are just delaying the inevitable and/or prolonging the correction. There are several suggestions on how to spend even more money along with several charts including the big Option-A reset charts showing all of the loans due to reset and go to higher payments. This is where you wonder if the over analytical with no actual experience of what is taking place in the trenches really knows what is going on out there.

Home Price Decline Protection Program

Starting on page 77 is an interesting suggestion on what appears to be a pay off for lenders to do loan modifications in hard hit areas to take on the risk in home values declining further and homeowners then walking away with the loss in equity. As I’ve seen in Las Vegas… loan modifications performed in 2008 just delayed the homeowners from making a move by doing a short sale or going to foreclosure later on as their equity declined. I’m not sure how payoffs to delay the inevitable are going to help in the long run.

Foreclosure Alternatives Program (FAP)

Page 78 goes into the incentives for lenders to work with homeowners when a loan modification cannot be performed and deals with short sales and deeds in lieu of foreclosure in order to avoid foreclosure since foreclosures tend to cost everybody (including neighbors) more. The program was announced on May 14th and included incentives for lenders to do the short sale, and even provides a payoff to encourage homeowners to pursue a short sale along with a standardized procedure for the short sale process. This program still has yet to be finalized. In my opinion… it’s the part of the report for suggestions that makes the most sense considering the big picture of what is taking place.

Unemployment Crisis Impact on Future Foreclosures

Page 106 — This is interesting how the report basically just comes out and states the Making Home Affordable (MHA) program was looking at past results and not future indicators. (Such as the charts provided earlier concerning all of the future Option Arms that are going to be resetting.) While the program might have worked in other areas.. I highlighted the Help for Homeowners Program for Las Vegas back when it was announced in February and questioned if it would work for Las Vegas.  Obviously… I think I was right that it would do little to help Las Vegas Home sellers due to what was taking shape.

From the Report:

The Result is that MHA programs may not be adequate for the present and coming phases of the foreclosure crisis.

Is this an admission that real estate values are not getting better and the billions already spent have been a failure?

Here is an interesting quote from the article on page 107 where it appears that paying for mortgages of the unemployed is being suggested / proposed:

Unemployed Homeowners to have their Mortgages paid?

Unemployed Homeowners to have their Mortgages paid?

Dr. Willen certainly touches on something here. While much of the blame for the foreclosure crisis has been put on sub prime mortgages and exotic loan products.. the fact of the matter is that when High home values created by lax lending standards and easy credit….  job relocations, illness and loss of income can have a huge impact when people are mortgaged to the hilt and do not have a backup savings account. In other words.. it comes down to being debted out.

“Married to your Mortgage”is something that I learned long ago and basically this means telling clients you don’t want to be strapped out on your mortgage in case something happens. Worst case scenario… buy something with your means that can be rented out to cover your mortgage if something does happen and you don’t have enough equity to sell. Certainly something you could not do in Las Vegas mid 2004 through 2008 unless you put down a huge down payment.

This is an interesting suggestion for the benefit of lenders to pay the mortgages of people who have been laid off which I’ll assume is going to get really, really pricey for taxpayers. It may also just be delaying the inevitable since the promise of high paying jobs coming back anytime soon appears to be pretty slim in these days of bargain hunting.

Who is this Really Benefitting?

Perhaps my interpretation of who all of this really benefits is wrong but it appears that lenders and investors are the primary concern in this report. While it is extremely noble to come up with programs to keep homeowners in homes with loans they can’t afford… in the long run… it’s draining capital that could probably be better served elsewhere then what statistics are showing as just delaying the inevitable.

And honestly… I have yet to have a Las Vegas short sale seller contact me after doing a short sale regretting that they got out of a home to move forward in life. It’s been a long time since May 14th when the Foreclosure Alternatives Program (FAP) was announced and it’s not that difficult to come up with a program so people can move on in life.

However boring you found the report… it is a fascinating insight into what our elected officials are hopefully reading… and thinking as they spend the next trillion or two..

Paul Francis, CRS
Prudential Americana Group – Realtors®
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058

Next Page »

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.