I found this over at Altos Research for their June 2008 National Real Estate Report and went to leave a comment for some questions as to what Mike is using for his numbers. For some reason it would not allow me to leave a comment so here are my questions:
Mike,
For Las Vegas, are you including Las Vegas Luxury Condominiums in your report? For Inventory, are you just using Las Vegas MLS numbers or are you including all of the new homes? etc..
Also, I’ve become aware of several Bank Owned Las Vegas Homes not officially up for sale on the MLS (yet) but are available for sale. So, the whole story about inventory levels being reported may not be accurate by anybody at this point. (I have a feeling the banks certainly do not want people to know just how many there are since they need to sell them.) Could you direct me to the criteria you are using for your reports so I can see how you are getting your numbers?
Thanks Mike!
Perhaps Mike will swing by here and let us know where these numbers are coming from. I’m certainly not questioning his numbers since every analyst has different criteria they are using and there is no one “standard” set of numbers. I just want to know the criteria used so I can understand why the report is saying what it does.
In my reports such as the ones I do For Red Rock Country Club Real Estate, I’ll state right in the report that the information is coming from the Las Vegas MLS and does not include FSBO’s.
In my comment originally intended for the Altos blog, you’ll see that I mentioned the Bank Owned Inventory that is not listed for sale on the Las Vegas MLS. I’m becoming increasingly aware of Bank Owned Las Vegas homes available for sale but not on the Las Vegas MLS or bank owned homes being handled by REO agents waiting for the OK from the bank to put them on the market (even though they are ready to go) so inventory levels being reported by everybody may not be telling the whole story. (In fact, I would bet it’s not.)
In the past, it was no big deal but considering how many bank owned homes there now are, inventory reports from all of the analysts are not telling the whole story. I primarily specialize in a few zip codes (89135, 89052, 89138, 89144, 89011, 89148 and parts of 89113) and I’m aware of it happening. So… something tells me there are plenty of other areas in Las Vegas and North Las Vegas that are the same.
Numbers from different analysts are all over the place right now and it’s easy to understand why if you have an understanding of statistics and how different sets of criteria can have an influence on reported numbers.
Precisely why I highly, highly recommend you use a specialist in the area you are looking in. If you contact me and I don’t know the area like the back of my hand, I will refer you to somebody who does. The Las Vegas real estate market is just way too complex right now for the average real estate agent that relies on reports when they don’t even understand where the criteria in the report is coming from. Or if it’s just an opinion and they are just regurgitating any good news they can find.
A recent editorial opinion in the Wall Street Journal stating the real estate bubble was over highlights this. I can’t believe how often I’ve seen this report circulating around the real estate circles (lenders, sales managers, title officers, etc..) from people just looking for any sign of good news from a perceived authority. In fact, I’ve seen it encouraged for real estate agents to pass it around to everybody they know including potential clients to get them off of the fence.
Personally, I can’t do this because that report in the Wall Street Journal was an opinion written by the Managing Partner of a Hedge Fund with a high mix of housing and banking stocks in their portfolio. Some further research showed that their exposure to these stocks in their portfolio were nothing new — in other words, they did not just buy these real estate related stocks.
It’s kind of like a real estate developer or New Las Vegas home/condo builder saying that their product is a great “investment” — what do you think they are going to say if they are trying to sell new homes or condominiums? (Oops… I’ve ventured off into other topics so it’s time to end this post..)
Please, feel free to leave any comments you may have…
Paul Francis, CRS
Coldwell Banker Premier
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058
June 11, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Hi Paul – Thanks for the insightful questions. (not sure why our goofy blog wouldn’t let you comment…)
To answer a few for you, this national report we publish monthly only looks at single family homes. As a broad, national view, the report is useful for comparing a few key aspects in metro markets around the country. The local media likes it, but it isn’t designed to help an individual make a buying or selling decision in any particular local market.
In our local reports and realtor products (our bread and butter data), we track and publish condos separately from SFR. We do so because, as you say, you need to look at all the parts of the market to get a full picture. We also do things like break out the local analyses by price range. In a lot of cases you’ll see behavior at the high-end of the market very different from the low-end. (And very different from what a national report would illustrate!) These can be powerful insights for buyers and sellers.
Unfortunately it’s just too much to try to publish in one, nationally-scoped report. (We do thousands of local reports each week to get to those details.)
Also our data doesn’t typically cover FSBOs or other non-traditional-type sales. We like to think the insights available in our stuff helps specialists like you get more useful info to your clients to make decisions with more confidence.
Hope that helps!
Mike Simonsen
Altos Research
June 11, 2008 at 5:15 pm
Thanks for stopping by and answering Mike! I appreciate it.
When I asked the questions on your blog it would not accept the verification code for whatever reason.
Plenty of good information anyways to spotlight here..
Paul