As reported by the Las Vegas Review Journal. Personally, I’m more optimistic for Las Vegas real estate buyers then the overall message being provided below.

There are several Las Vegas homes already priced below market value and this includes the multiple Las Vegas bank owned homes where the banks are just trying to get them off of their books. 

Interestingly, I did a report on current Las Vegas market activity on the Las Vegas MLS and here are the numbers that I saw on 2/05/2008:

2,793 Residential Properties on the Las Vegas MLS were in Contingent or Pending Status. A further Breakdown:

  • 2,401 of these properties were Single Family Homes
  • 380 of these were Condos and Town-homes
  • 12 Manufactured Homes

All things considering, these are the best numbers I’ve seen in actual activity for several months and a big difference from a report I did on November Las Vegas real estate statistics.

Now, according to the indicator chart provided by the Las Vegas Review Journal at the very bottom, they have the median home price in Las Vegas for 2007 at $280,000 and 27,513 residential properties for sale.

So, I jumped on the Las Vegas MLS to see what is going on today and entered the criteria of areas 101 through 606 which includes Las Vegas, North Las Vegas and Henderson. Here are the numbers:

  • Currently active residential properties for sale: 23,681
  • Properties currently available and priced below $280,000: 12,166

The most important advice I can give Las Vegas real estate sellers right now is bi-weekly (or at a very minimum monthly) reports on community sales activity and pricing comparisons for similar properties available for sale.

So, despite the gloom and doom tone of the report below, the numbers provided above show significant interest in Las Vegas real estate. Obviously, it’s all about the price and not the lack of interest for Las Vegas real estate. I can tell you with absolute certainty that due to the big price decreases in Las Vegas, it’s certainly becoming more and more appealing when you consider the cost of living factors such as property taxes.  (I have a Brother In Law in the suburbs of Chicago paying over $8,000 a year in property taxes for a $400,000 home and another Brother in Law in Austin, TX paying over $10,000 a year in property taxes for a home they paid a little over $450,000 for. The annual property taxes for a home we have listed for Sale at $750,000 on the golf course in Rhodes Ranch are only $4,759. Rhodes Ranch Golf Course Home for Sale.)

You can use my Las Vegas real estate search to see what you can buy for $450,000 in Las Vegas and make sure you check out the tool that shows the number of Las Vegas real estate price reductions for the past seven days. (1,497 for today which is a decrease from the reported 2,045 on January 23.)

I personally don’t know anybody that can predict the future with absolute certainty otherwise I would be sitting on the beach in Grand Cayman. However, I do know how to analyze current market activity and what a good real estate deal is for a buyer and what it will take to get a Las Vegas home sold using current numbers. Something to think about before taking “general” real estate news seriously.

We all have to work with the market and no real estate agent or company for that matter controls the real estate market. What I do know is that if I can buy a home below current market value with 10% down and it rents out close to what the mortgage is, it’s a good long term deal.

Anyways — here is the article and keep in mind it appears they are making comparisons based on 2007 statistics. (Oh, another note on a quote from the article — “Las Vegas benefited more than most of the nation from a run-up in home prices in 2004 and 2005.”  — Certainly True for 2004, but for 2005, Several markets had higher price appreciations then Las Vegas real estate. The big price decrease in prices by Pulte Homes in October of 2004 was a big indicator of what was going to happen IMO.)

Buy smart to begin with because there are some fantastic deals out there!

Paul Francis, ABR,CRS | Coldwell Banker Premier | Las Vegas Real Estate | 702.592.3058

REAL ESTATE: Home prices to recover late in LV Report says drop in values will extend through 2009By JENNIFER ROBISON
REVIEW-JOURNAL

 Las Vegas benefited more than most of the nation from a run-up in home prices in 2004 and 2005. Now, it’s suffering more than other markets as values drop.
Southern Nevada will arrive late to the party as prices stabilize nationally in coming months, according to a new report from a housing research firm.Researchers at Houston-based Metrostudy said Monday that low interest rates and dwindling new-home supplies mean housing prices should end their year-long skid by mid-2008. But homeowners in Las Vegas shouldn’t expect values to stop declining until early 2009, said Josh Seime, manager of Metrostudy’s Las Vegas division.That’s because the local market has yet to see the worst of rising housing inventories, thanks to a home-foreclosure surge that will likely continue into the second quarter.

Local observers say Metrostudy’s forecast is too pessimistic.Devin Reiss, president of the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, said his trade group’s numbers show inventory is already flattening.Realtors listed 22,005 single-family homes on the association’s Multiple Listing Service in December, down from 23,494 units in November. And where inventory is steady, said Reiss, prices should stay relatively constant.Foreclosures remain the wild card in figuring future prices, Reiss said. If mortgage defaults rise substantially in coming months, expect the number of homes on the market to jump and prices to drop.Brian Gordon of Applied Analysis, a local economic research firm, said equilibrium should return to the local housing market by late 2008 for two reasons: Homeowners who have listed houses will pull those properties off the market to avoid further price cuts, and the resort sector is set to begin a hiring push for thousands of jobs.The biggest planned megaresorts — CityCenter and Echelon — won’t open before 2009, Gordon acknowledged, but several smaller properties need workers now. The Strip’s Trump International Hotel & Tower, with 1,300 suites, must hire for its March 31 opening. Palms Place, a 600-unit condo-hotel west of the Palms, will open in early March. Locals casino Aliante Station is scheduled to open in North Las Vegas in late 2008. Encore at Wynn Las Vegas is also set to launch later this year. Plus, resorts coming online in 2009 will begin recruiting workers by the end of 2008.All that job growth should translate into higher housing demand, Gordon said.

“We are seeing (hiring) activity,” he said. “It will take some time to work through current surplus of housing inventory, but we expect to start seeing improvements by the end of the year.”

Metrostudy’s analysts, however, said they see too many troublesome indicators to predict local housing improvements before 2009.

Unemployment in Las Vegas reached 5.6 percent in December, up from 4.2 percent in December 2006. That points to stagnant economic growth and a resulting slowdown in housing demand, Seime said.

What’s more, the Las Vegas area had 27,513 resale listings — a 16.1-month supply — on the market at the fourth quarter’s close. The city also had 15,840 condominiums, or a 26.5-month supply, for sale at the end of the quarter. The stock of developed single-family lots ready for new construction hit 31,194 parcels. That’s a 29.2-month inventory.

Combine those ample stores of available homes with a traditional spring rise in listings and sustained gains in foreclosure rates, and you have a formula for “new highs” in local housing supplies through the middle of 2008, Seime said. Inventory should then even out.

A mid-year ceiling on housing supply won’t rein in prices until the first half of 2009 because the market will have a year or more of inventory in several submarkets.

It’s not all doom and gloom, though: Builders have restrained new-home inventory, creating a supply of less than six months. And with 6,000 new residents a month moving into town, Las Vegas remains one of the country’s fastest-growing cities.

“Las Vegas continues to have the underpinnings necessary to bolster demand for housing in the long term,” Seime said.

Contact reporter Jennifer Robison at jrobison@reviewjournal.com or (702) 380-4512.

AT A GLANCE
Several key measures point to continued struggles for the housing market, as job formation slows and housing supplies rise.

Indicator 2007 2006
Jobs added 7,700 33,800
Unemployment 5.6% 4.2%
Existing homes for sale 27,513 22,697
Median single-family resale price $280,000 $326,000

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