According to the National Association of REALTORS, existing home sales are predicted to trend up for 2008 according to the pending home sales index and median prices are expected to edge up and improve.

Existing-home sales are likely to total 5.67 million this year, the fifth highest on record, rising to 5.70 million in 2008, in contrast with 6.48 million in 2006. Existing-home prices should be down 1.9 percent to a median of $217,600 for all of 2007, and then rise 0.3 percent to $218,300 in 2008.

In response to this latest report from the largest trade association of the real estate industry on the December 15th episode of “Cashin In” on the Fox News channel, Gary Kaltbaum of Gary Kaltbaum and Associates had this response:

“I would rather Listen to Michael Vick teach you how to train dogs then listen to the REALTOR association of where housing prices are going.”

I’m not quoting this statement because I think it’s funny but to highlight the perception that has taken place about the real estate industry and it’s pretty easy to see why. It’s incredibly easy to report on what has already happened but nearly impossible to predict on what is going to happen.

When you keep telling people that it’s a “Great Time to Buy” because interest rates are at historically low levels when home prices are at historically incredible numbers that could not be justified in relationship to average incomes, you lose your credibility when it may truly be a good time to buy. This was a $40 Million dollar ad campaign that will someday be (ok, already is) the target of multiple housing bubble blogs that are using it to make the REALTOR association look not so bright right now. I do read some of these blogs mainly to keep up with their news stories of shady real estate practices that made the news and some of the stories are absolutely amazing. Shady loan practices are going to keep this investigative law firm very busy for many years.

Unfortunately, these practices have not only come back to haunt the very people taken advantage of, but they artificially inflated real estate prices by creating a demand for homes that new home builders were more then happy to meet. More demand created incredible wealth for new home builders that were building and selling real estate with prices that had outrageous profit margins resulting in the supply of housing far higher then a true and normal demand.

For Las Vegas, the downturn began in October of 2004 when Pulte homes slashed new home prices in popular communities such as Summerlin and Sun City Anthem. It was just the beginning as new home and real estate speculators moved on to Arizona and Florida.

The positive news for Las Vegas real estate prices is that due to the slow down in demand in late 2004, new home builders began to back off of building new homes in Las Vegas. (True, development in Luxury High Rise Condominiums began it’s full force campaign but IMO that is a different real estate market catering to the more affluent. Of course, it will be interesting to see what happens when many of these towers finish up in the coming years to see just how much speculation is going on.)

The basic point is that prices in Las Vegas have already been slashed due to a wave of foreclosures.  I’ve seen Summerlin homes priced $200,000 below their new home selling prices of $450,000 back in 2005 and some of these are barely even lived in. Will Las Vegas real estate sales rebound in 2008 and prices increase? I can’t say with 100% certainty and I stay out of the prediction game because obviously I’m a REALTOR that has a financial benefit when people buy or sell real estate. Predicting outcomes for something that can be a very emotional process is something I don’t want to get involved in but I’ll certainly be happy to work with current statistics.
I will tell you this, it certainly makes much more sense to buy Las Vegas real estate then it did in the last National Association of REALTORS ad campaign of late 2006.


In the days after the ad campaign launched on Friday, news articles about NAR’s “Buy Now” message appeared in dozens of well-respected newspapers, from the The New York Times to the The Sacramento Bee. Here’s what some of them had to say:

  • “It may go down as the ‘Got milk?’ moment for the housing sector.” — The New York Times, Nov. 3.
  • “Local REALTORS® at a media event yesterday said it’s a lot better to be selling in today’s ‘normal’ environment than in the five-year real estate boom when prices climbed 20 percent a year and multiple bids over listing price were offered on the first day.” — The Baltimore Sun, Nov. 4
  • “The NAR ads say there are strong arguments for prospective buyers to jump into the market, with interest rates remaining relatively low and inventories of unsold homes still high.” — Reuters News, Nov. 6.

I think the $40 Million spent on that ad campaign would have been much better utilized offering free real estate investment training for it’s members with at least a basic understanding of preparing rent vs. buy calculations. It certainly would have been a much better investment for credibility.

Paul Francis, ABR,CRS
Coldwell Banker Premier
Las Vegas Real Estate
10120 S. Eastern Ave
Henderson, NV 89052
702.592.3058